High Yield Happenings: Should spreads be even tighter?
Key takeaways
As the chart below shows, with the sole exception of 1984, we have had 42 years in which high-yield credit spreads significantly overcompensated investors for their realised losses over the next three years.
Holders of high-yield bonds have consistently been overcompensated for credit losses
Source: Artemis, ICE BofA and S&P Default Study. High-yield credit spreads versus three-year annualised forward credit losses. Credit losses are calculated from annualised default figures, assuming the historic average recovery rate of 40%1.
So, in reality and on aggregate, the price has almost never been right in the high-yield market. In fact, investors have always been significantly overcompensated for the default risk they are taking. Given the significant increase in quality in the high-yield market that we’ve seen in recent years, this doesn’t seem likely to change soon.
Notes and references
CAPITAL AT RISK. All financial investments involve taking risk and the value of your investment may go down as well as up. This means your investment is not guaranteed and you may not get back as much as you put in. Any income from the investment is also likely to vary and cannot be guaranteed.
This is a marketing communication. Before making any final investment decisions, and to understand the investment risks involved, refer to the fund prospectus (or in the case of investment trusts, Investor Disclosure Document and Articles of Association), available in English, and KIID/KID, available in English and in your local language depending on local country registration, available in the literature library.
Risks specific to Artemis Funds (Lux) – Short-Dated Global High Yield Bond
- Market volatility risk The value of the fund and any income from it can fall or rise because of movements in stockmarkets, currencies and interest rates, each of which can move irrationally and be affected unpredictably by diverse factors, including political and economic events.
- Currency hedging risk The fund hedges with the aim of protecting against unwanted changes in foreign exchange rates. The fund is still subject to market risks, may not be completely protected from all currency fluctuations and may not be fully hedged at all times. The transaction costs of hedging may also negatively impact the fund’s returns.
- Bond liquidity risk The fund holds bonds which could prove difficult to sell. As a result, the fund may have to lower the selling price, sell other investments or forego more appealing investment opportunities.
- Higher-yielding bonds risk The fund may invest in higher-yielding bonds, which may increase the risk to capital. Investing in these types of assets (which are also known as sub-investment grade bonds) can produce a higher yield but also brings an increased risk of default, which would affect the capital value of the fund.
- Credit risk Investments in bonds are affected by interest rates, inflation and credit ratings. It is possible that bond issuers will not pay interest or return the capital. All of these events can reduce the value of bonds held by the fund.
- Derivatives risk The fund may invest in derivatives with the aim of profiting from falling (‘shorting’) as well as rising prices. Should the asset’s value vary in an unexpected way, the fund value could reduce.
- Charges from capital risk Where charges are taken wholly or partly out of a fund's capital, distributable income may be increased at the expense of capital, which may constrain or erode capital growth.
- Emerging markets risk Compared to more established economies, investments in emerging markets may be subject to greater volatility due to differences in generally accepted accounting principles, less governed standards or from economic or political instability. Under certain market conditions assets may be difficult to sell.
- Income risk The payment of income and its level is not guaranteed.
- ESG risk The fund may select, sell or exclude investments based on ESG criteria; this may lead to the fund underperforming the broader market or other funds that do not apply ESG criteria. If sold based on ESG criteria rather than solely on financial considerations, the price obtained might be lower than that which could have been obtained had the sale not been required.
Risks specific to Artemis Funds (Lux) – Global High Yield Opportunities
- Market volatility risk The value of the fund and any income from it can fall or rise because of movements in stockmarkets, currencies and interest rates, each of which can move irrationally and be affected unpredictably by diverse factors, including political and economic events.
- Currency hedging risk The fund hedges with the aim of protecting against unwanted changes in foreign exchange rates. The fund is still subject to market risks, may not be completely protected from all currency fluctuations and may not be fully hedged at all times. The transaction costs of hedging may also negatively impact the fund’s returns.
- Bond liquidity risk The fund holds bonds which could prove difficult to sell. As a result, the fund may have to lower the selling price, sell other investments or forego more appealing investment opportunities.
- Higher-yielding bonds risk The fund may invest in higher-yielding bonds, which may increase the risk to capital. Investing in these types of assets (which are also known as sub-investment grade bonds) can produce a higher yield but also brings an increased risk of default, which would affect the capital value of the fund.
- Credit risk Investments in bonds are affected by interest rates, inflation and credit ratings. It is possible that bond issuers will not pay interest or return the capital. All of these events can reduce the value of bonds held by the fund.
- Derivatives risk The fund may invest in derivatives with the aim of profiting from falling (‘shorting’) as well as rising prices. Should the asset’s value vary in an unexpected way, the fund value could reduce.
- Leverage risk The fund may operate with a significant amount of leverage. Leverage occurs when the economic exposure created by the use of derivatives is greater than the amount invested. A leveraged portfolio may result in large fluctuations in its value and therefore entails a high degree of risk including the risk that losses may be substantial.
- Charges from capital risk Where charges are taken wholly or partly out of a fund's capital, distributable income may be increased at the expense of capital, which may constrain or erode capital growth.
- Emerging markets risk Compared to more established economies, investments in emerging markets may be subject to greater volatility due to differences in generally accepted accounting principles, less governed standards or from economic or political instability. Under certain market conditions assets may be difficult to sell.
- Income risk The payment of income and its level is not guaranteed.
- Counterparty risk Investments such as derivatives are made using financial contracts with third parties. Those third parties may fail to meet their obligations to the fund due to events beyond the fund's control. The fund's value could fall because of loss of monies owed by the counterparty and/or the cost of replacement financial contracts.
- ESG risk The fund may select, sell or exclude investments based on ESG criteria; this may lead to the fund underperforming the broader market or other funds that do not apply ESG criteria. If sold based on ESG criteria rather than solely on financial considerations, the price obtained might be lower than that which could have been obtained had the sale not been required.
Risks specific to Artemis High Income Fund
- Market volatility risk The value of the fund and any income from it can fall or rise because of movements in stockmarkets, currencies and interest rates, each of which can move irrationally and be affected unpredictably by diverse factors, including political and economic events.
- Currency risk The fund’s assets may be priced in currencies other than the fund base currency. Changes in currency exchange rates can therefore affect the fund's value.
- Bond liquidity risk The fund holds bonds which could prove difficult to sell. As a result, the fund may have to lower the selling price, sell other investments or forego more appealing investment opportunities.
- Higher-yielding bonds risk The fund may invest in higher-yielding bonds, which may increase the risk to capital. Investing in these types of assets (which are also known as sub-investment grade bonds) can produce a higher yield but also brings an increased risk of default, which would affect the capital value of the fund.
- Credit risk Investments in bonds are affected by interest rates, inflation and credit ratings. It is possible that bond issuers will not pay interest or return the capital. All of these events can reduce the value of bonds held by the fund.
- Charges from capital risk Where charges are taken wholly or partly out of a fund's capital, distributable income may be increased at the expense of capital, which may constrain or erode capital growth.
- Emerging markets risk Compared to more established economies, investments in emerging markets may be subject to greater volatility due to differences in generally accepted accounting principles, less governed standards or from economic or political instability. Under certain market conditions assets may be difficult to sell.
- Income risk The payment of income and its level is not guaranteed.
The intention of Artemis’ ‘investment insights’ articles is to present objective news, information, data and guidance on finance topics drawn from a diverse collection of sources. Content is not intended to provide tax, legal, insurance or investment advice and should not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security or investment by Artemis or any third-party. Potential investors should consider the need for independent financial advice. Any research or analysis has been procured by Artemis for its own use and may be acted on in that connection. The contents of articles are based on sources of information believed to be reliable; however, save to the extent required by applicable law or regulations, no guarantee, warranty or representation is given as to its accuracy or completeness. Any forward-looking statements are based on Artemis’ current opinions, expectations and projections. Articles are provided to you only incidentally, and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The source for all data is Artemis, unless stated otherwise. The value of an investment, and any income from it, can fall as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations and you may not get back the amount originally invested.
